You Can't Go Wrong With...Grady Sizemore- Matt Holliday

First and foremost I would like to say thanks to our readers on the boards, and all those leave comments, and show continued love. Without you guys we’d have no reason to be doing these blogs. Hopefully you guys are getting as much out of this as we are.

This week’s debate will have us taking a look at a topic that was highly debated on the boards in the last couple of weeks. The question was which outfielder is better, Grady Sizemore or Matt Holliday.

Both fantastic players in their own right and both are deserving of the title, but when it comes down to it, just who is the best?

Hotcornerhero- Grady Sizemore
Well I won the coin flip and got the Cleveland Indians stud outfielder Grady Sizemore.
Last time I wrote an entry I was stating that Hanley Ramirez is the best player in the game; well he has an equal in the outfield in Grady Sizemore.

He’s the perfect mix of speed, power, run production, and defense. Which makes it hard to believe that he was traded before! Sizemore was acquired from the Montreal Expos in 2002 along with Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Lee Stevens in exchange for Bartolo Colón and Tim Drew.

Take a look at this numbers from last season, and you’ll see that they are more then impressive.
101 runs, 33 hr, 90rbi, 38 sb, .374 OBP, .502 SLG arguably his only flaw is his .268 batting average, which is a minus for a lead off hitter. Aside from that, Grady has all the numbers, to be a top 10 pick and the first outfielder selected in 2009 drafts.

A quick peek at some Saber Stats (my favourite!), and you’ll see that Grady Sizemore, is pretty difficult to replace, creating 18.39 Runs/Game and a linear weighted power of 16.15, and you’ll see just how dynamic a player he is. Compare those same stats with Holliday, (14.43 Runs/Game, and 15.40 LWPWR) albeit in 95 less at bats.

EDIT- My math was messed up! (Hint- make sure your spacing between formulas is sufficient!) Here are the actual Runs Created Total Season- (h+bb-cs) x (tb+(.55xsb))/ (ab+bb)
Runs Created Per Game- Runs Created/((ab-h+cs)/25.5)

Sizemore- Total Runs Created- 121.76, Runs Created/ Game- 6.62

Holliday- Total Runs Created- 122.06, Runs Created/Game- 8.46

Which essentially means Matt Holliday is unstoppable.


There have been rumblings that Grady will move down the lineup in order to better utilize his power, likely in the number three hole. But conversely that would affect his run totals, and stolen bases, as a fantasy manager I’m much happier with Grady remaining atop the Indians lineup, which should be much improved thanks in part to the return of a healthy Victor Martinez, and the emergence of fellow outfielder, and sleep Shin- Soo Choo.
With Grady Sizemore entering his prime, his numbers can and likely will get better. If he cut back on his propensity to strike out, Grady would be an even MORE dangerous hitter.



howardberger1950 -- Matt Holliday

OK, it's your first-round pick and you're taking an OF. Holliday or Grady? No bad choices here, but consider the following: 162-game averages: Runs: Grady--114, Holliday--111; HRs--Grady 26, Matt 30; RBI--Grady 83, Matt--112; BA--Grady .279, Matt .319. The NL average BA was .281 BTW, so Holliday consistently hits about 38 points higher than the average position player in the NL.But, Sizemore's asset is his speed and he had a career high of 38 SBs last year, stealing 88% of his attempts. Holliday had a career high of 28 SBs with a success rate of 93%. Holliday also had the highest ranking on the Elias Sports Bureau for FAs (input from owners and players) with 98.125 beating CC's 98.110 and behind Teixeira's 98.889.

The knock on Holliday, son of a football coach, has always been the Coors Field factor. His OPS at home last year was an outstanding .997; on the road it dipped somewhat to .891 (still quite good) and that is with a bunch of games at pitcher-friendly SF, SD and LA. Sizemore's home BA was .322 and his road BA was .216; he hit .286 against RHPs and only .224 vs. LHPs; he hit .249 at night and .316 for day games, so if you get him on the road at night against a LHP, you should be fine, I guess.

Sizemore is 26, two years younger than Holliday and obviously has a different role on his team. Both are worthy of a first-round pick, but I'd take the guy who hits 40 points higher with more power/production and who can also run, albeit not quite on a par with Sizemore. And, I'd start him on the road without any concerns; I'm not sure I can say the same for the Indians' OF.