You Can’t Go Wrong With…
The response to our first blog was so over whelming that we now have enough subjects to debate until 2009! Which if you think about really isn’t that far away. Just enough time to sit back enjoy the World Series. Take a couple days off, then get back to work, pounding out spread sheets, loaded with information such sabermetric formulas, all the way to what their favourite meal to eat on a Wednesday is. Ok well maybe not that far, but I do know that I for one will start to build a quick list of the top 300 players based on my preceived value for next season. Rankings lists always will have people disagreeing.
So and so is ranked way to high, he’s an injury risk, blah, blah, blah, so and so is ranked way to low, his potential is outrageous, blah, blah, blah. A list is a list, subjective to the list makers, own draft strategies and fantasy biases. My list will differ greatly from Howard’s which will undoubtedly differ from yours, and I know you’re wondering, what ranking is most likely to be debated?
Number one of course.
This season sees us have two very worthy candidates, for that honor. The New York Yankees Alex Rodriguez,the picture of production and consistency and the Florida Marlins Hanley Ramirez, a bona fide threat for a 40/40 season.
Which brings us to this weeks debate.
Who’sThe Number One Pick?
HotCornerHero- Hanley Ramirez-
Hanley Ramirez, also know in some corners of the fantasy world, as God, Numero Uno, or simply and most commonly Hanley, is arguably the best player in the league. He IS without a doubt the best player at a weak position. Short stop is notorious for having only a select few elite options, and then a violent drop off to the REST of the field.
With talent rather shallow, it’s imperative to get a productive player to fill that slot in your lineup. Hanley Ramirez, will fill that slot.
A quick look at the stats, and you’ll quickly realize that not only is Hanley Ramirez the best short stop in the league, but he’s also the best player, and the Top Pick for 2009 drafts.
.301 batting, 33 homeruns, 67 rbi, 35 sb, 125 runs, .400 OBP, .540 SLG.
Hanley posted career highs, in runs, home runs, walks, and OBP. The best part about it, those numbers can improve! Hanley will be 26 entering spring training, so he’s still young and just entering his prime. You could take a look at his career numbers and be a little disappointed in the drop in stolen bases, and runs batted in, but you can also take solace in the fact that he belted 33 dingers from the lead off, and all indications, point to him moving lower in the lineup to better utilize his power.
Now this means that his stolen base opportunities will further suffer along with runs, but his RBI, and homerun numbers will likely improve.
Putting those scenarios aside, and further breaking down the stats, we’ll notice that a lineup of 9 Hanley’s would produce an obscene, 16.627 Runs Created/game (ab-h+CS)/25.5. Now obviously you can’t go cloning 9 Hanleys for your fantasy team. I tried. Didn’t work out well.
Compare that to A-Rod’s lack luster 16.039 RC/G, and you’ll see just how good Ramirez is. (A RC/G above 10, is considered exceptional).
Also take into consideration his elite Linear Weighted Power of 22.22 { ((double x.8)+(triple x .8) +(hr x 1.4)/(ab-k))x 100 }, and compare that to other home run hitting short stops, Peralta (14.405), Drew (14.621) and Hardy (13.079) and you can see why Hanley is the best at a weak position.
In case you wondering Rodriguez has a LwPwr of 25.903, but he’s a clean up hitter, his power is supposed to be predominate.
For a hitter this young, with this high of a skill set, a true break out season is just around the corner. Playing in a weak division, in which he faces only two TRUE aces in Cole Hamels, and Johan Santana, you can expect Hanley to continue producing as the leagues premier short stop.
Managers in roto leagues will love having his balanced attack contribute across the board, and those in Head to Head points leagues will be estatic to find him on their roster.
There is little doubt to as to why Hanley Ramirez should and will be the number one pick in 2009, and in years to follow.
The Case for Alex Rodriguez
It’s not an enviable task that I have: Hanley Ramirez is a likeable kind of guy on a likeable kind of team; and he puts up great numbers. Alex Rodriguez is a pompous, self-centered, hateable kind of guy on a hateable kind of team. I feel like a lawyer who is defending a man that no one likes – but an innocent man.
I just finished reading Hot Corner Hero’s piece on Hanley and it’s very thorough; Hanley puts up awesome numbers—especially for shortstop. Let’s talk first about this position scarcity thing: sure, there are only a couple of first-round talent shortstops, but there is a plethora of useful shortstops. The 3B community loses both Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera, this year, as neither will be eligible in ESPN leagues. That leaves IMO A-Rod and Wright at the top of the list with Longoria, A-Ram and Atkins a little ways back. The point is: there isn’t all that much difference anymore in these positions.
Hanley obviously puts up numbers. Interesting fact though: the season record for most runs by a shortstop (141), most extra base hits by a shortstop (91), slugging percentage by a shortstop (.631) and total bases by a shortstop (393) are ALL held by (you guessed it) Alex Rodriguez. BTW, he also holds the season record for HRs by a 3B (52) and SBs in a 50-HR season (24—tied with Willie Mays). Oh, and he’s the youngest player to 500 HRs (32 years, 8 days). So, as far as pure numbers are concerned, I like A-Rod.
In picking any first-rounder, you really can’t gamble—it has to be a sure thing. Barring injury, of course, both of these guys qualify. A-Rod’s average for his career (162-game average): .306, 191Hits, 44 HRs, 22 SBs, 127 Runs, 127 RBIs, .389 OBP, .578 SLG %. The fact is, like him or not, he’ll never hurt you. Now, let’s discuss all of those peripheral issues that fantasy players like to factor in: A-Rod is 8.5 years older than Hanley which could be a factor in a dynasty, but he’s 33 and his numbers are STILL consistent (45 HR, 18 SB average since 2000). A-Rod’s protection in the line-up is far superior to Hanley’s. Honestly, the only detriment to his production could be the mess off the field with a divorce and the never-ending Madonna questions.
Finally, an anti-Hanley stat: his RBI and SB numbers dropped last season; his BBs went up from 52 to 92—which is obviously significant—and that’s a direct result of Miguel Cabrera being gone (and he isn’t coming back anytime soon). Sure, Hanley should hit down in the order, but who’s gonna lead off then, Alfredo Amezaga? There really is no good replacement, right now, which is why he’s still leading off. When you add it all up, I think Alex Rodriguez should go #1, Hanley #2 and Pujols #3.
So fans what are your thoughts, who is your number one pick?
