Tim Lincecum or Johan Santana?

You Can’t Go Wrong With…
Matt Vandenbrand
Howard Berger
Fantasy baseball.
It’s truly an amazing phenomenon. The game, that can turn a simple disagree into a full blown yelling match in a bar complete with name calling, cursing, and on more then one occasion, a minor scuffle may ensue.
But there in lies the beauty of fantasy sports. I believe it makes you a better fan. Of course there are still some fans are swayed by loyalty biases, and geographical biases, but I believe that there are still a few managers out who will provide an intelligent argument, a debate if you will, over which player is better.
That is the motivating reason for the birth of this blog.
Howard and I believe we are two of those unbiased fans and set out to provide you with an entertaining and dare I say it, educational debate on….
Which pitcher will be drafted first in 2009?
The San Francisco Giants young hurler Tim Lincecum, or the New York Mets former Cy Young winner, Johan Santana.
Let the debate BEGIN!
Hotcornerhero- Tim Lincecum
We all know about the meteoric rise to international stardom of the Giants young ace Tim Lincecum. It’s no surprise that many fantasy baseball experts are proclaiming him as this season’s National League Cy Young winner.
The fact that Lincecum has jumped to elite status should not be shocking to those fantasy managers who have followed his career, since his big league debut in 2007.
The enormous upside that Lincecum has is just cause for making him the first pitcher selected in drafts next season. But there’s more then that.
To the evidence-
It’s no secret that the Giants are not a particularly good team. So what does that have to do with Lincecum?
It proves just how dominate he truly is.
Posting 18 wins on a team that managed 72 wins, or 25% of the total wins is highly impressive!
But, as we all know, wins are not a very good indicator of a pitcher’s talent.
265. 265 strikeouts. Lincecum, led the league with 265 strikeouts. Those in point’s leagues are salivating at the thought of how many more K’s they could get out of him.
We’re only scratching the surface here folks, there’s still much more.
A miniscule 2.62 era, a 10.51 k/9 rating, an impressive 1.17 whip, 1.27 GO/AO (ground out/air out ratio), and 11 hrs. Those 11 hr are 12 LESS then Santana allowed this year!
Posting a sparkling 3.15 command ratio (k/bb), factor in a fantastic strand rate 78.4%, hitters managed to hit for a measly .221 average, a low .316 slugging percentage and you begin to understand that master piece that is Tim Lincecum.
His contributions can be seen across the board (with the exception of saves), and are more then enough to help power you to a league championship.
By drafting Lincecum, you can now sit back and load up on power bats, in the ensuing rounds, because your pitching staff is anchored by one of the best in the business.
Lincecum has shown that while still young in the major leagues, he is the most valuable starting pitcher in the game and SHOULD be the first pitcher taken during the 2009 drafts.

Howard Berger- Johan Santana
Before I begin my case for Johan Santana being the first SP off the board, I’ll take this opportunity to give just a bit of background to show how difficult it is to judge young pitchers: Johan was originally drafted by the Houston Astros when he was 16, but was never signed. He was then drafted by the Florida Marlins in 1999 at the age of 20; he was traded the same day. Trade: Johan Santana plus cash for Jared Camp. Camp, BTW, had a lifetime record of 34-36 in 8 minor league seasons from 1995 to 2002.

Looking at the 2008 stats for Johan and Lincecum, there is little from which to choose. IP were virtually even; runs allowed were virtually even; ER were even. The same is true of CG, shutouts and virtually every other important stat.

So, how do we make a choice? It comes down to the peripheral issues. Look at the line-ups supporting these guys: I’ll take the Mets line-up over that of the Giants. Fielding support is similar: Lincecum allowed 6 unearned runs; Johan allowed 8. Bullpens: here is the big question as I don’t like either one. However, I see the Mets making a big move to improve their bullpen while I never foresee the Giants making a big move.

Other determining issues: Johan has a very fluid motion while Lincecum’s has always been very unorthodox. Johan has a track record: a .681 winning percentage over 9 MLB seasons. But, perhaps, the most intriguing stat is this: Johan won the ERA battle last year 2.53 to 2.62. Not a significant difference, but that was Johan’s lowest ERA of his career. He might actually be getting better! Or, it might be the move to the NL – either way, though, it’s a good sign for the next few years.

Bottom line: these are 2 great pitchers; Lincecum will undoubtedly give you more Ks but I believe Santana will give you more of everything else. If I were drafting in a new league, I’d take Johan first; if I were picking a keeper for a long-term league, I’d take the young gun and hope he stays healthy.



The choice ultimately comes down to your personal preference, and league settings. But really, you can't go wrong.